Sunday, November 04, 2012

2012 Election: Electoral Prediction Revised

2012-11-04.03

Okay…  I am revising my predictions for Tuesday.  Slightly.  I will point out that my electoral count has not changed much since my first prediction, but I think I have a better view as to how we will arrive there.2012-11-04.01.

On the right are Nate Silver’s current predictions.  He’s using math.  I am using his math, a couple different poll averages, and then spinning it through my gut.

When I made my first prediction, it looked like Colorado was more likely to go Obama than Virginia.  Today, I thought about flip flopping those two states.  However, they are both close enough that I am actually going to toss both of them over to Romney right now. 

If I was running the Obama campaign, does this mean that I’d concede these states and refocus the spending on other states?  Oh hell no.  In fact, Nate Silver has both Colorado and Virginia going blue on Tuesday night, but I don’t like the odds he has on Colorado and, well, Virginia is Virginia.  They might not have a working telephone when the pollsters call, but they will probably vote, so I want a big margin there before I go blue with Virginia.  Yes, Obama has made gains there since I made my prediction.  Not enough for me to turn it blue, though.

So, Ohio.  Well…  I still am nervous about Ohio.  Flip this red and, with my other updates, we’ve got President Romney. 

Fullscreen capture 1142012 101043 AM.bmpI am, however, cautiously accepting conventional wisdom today and turning it blue.  I think Obama is pulling ahead just enough now for me to lay to rest my immediate fear about, um, intangible and unpredictable factors in Ohio affecting the outcome on Tuesday.

One major factor in all of my predictions?  Romney out performing the polls by 1% to 3%, depending on the state.  This is why I’ve also tossed New Hampshire to Romney.  This is a really close call for me.  My gut does lean towards Obama here, he does have a 2% lead in the poll average (1.5% on RCP) and Nate has it with a 79.4% chance of an Obama win here, but it is just not enough for me.  This is a state where I want to see Obama leading by 3% in all the averages and Nate showing at least an 80%.  I hope to be wrong here, but I am being very conservative in my predictions. 

So, looking at the vote totals, I am still pretty close to my original prediction.  In fact, I almost let my original map stand, since it did have the caveat that it was more about predicting the vote totals rather than how we get there in two nights and I wasn’t sure that a 5 vote change in my prediction was enough to warrant a second post.

But there were enough changes in my state by state predictions, I felt, to justify taking a little time to revise my map. 

It is a tight race.  Not as tight as many in the media would have you think, but a little tighter than many pollsters and pundits are predicting right now, I think.  I still think Obama getting close to or more than 300 voted is pretty unlikely.  However, I think his re-election is pretty likely.

I think this is it.  I no longer see any new factors having time to gain enough traction between this morning and Tuesday morning to significantly change my predictions.  Of course, Romney may be discovered to have a second, third, and fourth wives or being a paid operative of the Chinese government and Obama may reveal himself to be the Anti-Christ, but really? 

I think all of the cards are on the table now and even Sandy, well…  Obama has at least a 10 point lead in the states the most affected by the storm, so while changes in margins there are possible due to the devastation, I do not think they will be enough to change the outcome in those states.

Popular Vote:  Too Close To Predict

As for the popular vote?  I’ll revise that to being a coin toss.  I am changing my prediction of a Romney victory there to a too close to call prediction right now.  Edge to Obama, perhaps, but I won’t put my money on that bet either way right now.

Previous Prediction

2012 Election: Polls & Predictions… A narrow and divided victory for Obama?
Election 2012: Ohio for Romney? Really?

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